The Cost Channel Reconsidered: A Comment Using an Identification-Robust Approach

We re-examine the empirical relevance of the cost channel of monetary policy (e.g. Ravenna and Walsh, 2006), employing recently developed moment-conditions inference methods, including identiÂ…cation-robust procedures. Using US data, our results suggest that the cost channel effect is poorly identiÂ…ed and we are thus unable to corroborate the previous results in the literatureCost channel, Phillips curve, GMM, Generalized Empirical Likelihood, Weak IdentiÂ…cation

Cointegration Tests under Multiple Regime Shifts: An Application to the Stock Price-Dividend Relationship

We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier work, which considered one-off deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspeci?ed number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this issue by exploring the possibility of Markov switching cointegration in the stock-price dividend relationship and showing that this case is empirically relevant. Our subsequent Monte Carlo analysis reveals that standard cointegration tests are generally reliable, their performance often being robust for a number of plausible regime shift parameterizations.Present value model, Cointegration tests, Markov switching

Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres are in part driven by anthropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes are also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.Debido a la variabilidad interna de baja frecuencia, las tendencias del calentamiento observadas y subyacentes en series de temperatura pueden ser marcadamente diferentes. Las temperaturas hemisféricas están caracterizadas por importantes discrepancias en las tendencias no lineales observadas, sugiriendo que los hemisferios norte y sur han respondido de manera diferente a los cambios en el forzamiento radiativo. Mediante la utilización de técnicas econométricas recientes es posible reconciliar estas diferencias y mostrar que todas las temperaturas terrestres y oceánicas comparten propiedades de series de tiempo similares, así como una tendencia subyacente común de origen antrópico. También se investiga la asimetría inter-hemisférica de temperatura (ITA, por sus siglas en inglés) y se muestra que la diferencia en el calentamiento entre hemisferios se debe en parte al forzamiento antrópico, pero que la mayoría de los cambios rápidos observados son probablemente producto de la variabilidad natural. La atribución de cambios en la ITA es importante porque los aumentos en el contraste de temperaturas entre hemisferios podrían ocasionar un desplazamiento de la zona intertropical de convergencia y alterar los patrones de precipitación. También se investigan la existencia y causas de una reciente ralentización en el calentamiento. Los resultados sugieren que dicha lentificación es una característica común de las temperaturas hemisféricas globales tanto en tierra como en el océano, y que puede atribuirse al menos parcialmente a cambios en el forzamiento antrópico

The cost channel reconsidered: a comment using an identification-robust approach

We re-examine the empirical relevance of the cost channel of monetary policy (e.g. Ravenna and Walsh, 2006), employing recently developed moment-conditions inference methods, including identification-robust procedures. Using US data, our results suggest that the cost channel effect is poorly identified and we are thus unable to corroborate the previous results in the literature.Cost channel; Phillips curve; GMM; Generalized Empirical Likelihood; Weak Identification.

The Properties of Cointegration Tests in Models with Structural Change

In this paper we examine, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, the properties of several cointegration tests when long run parameters are subject to structural changes. We allow for different types of stochastic and deterministic regime shifts, more specifically, changes governed by Markov chains, martingale parameter variation, sudden multiple breaks and gradual changes. Our Monte Carlo analysis reveals that tests with cointegration as the null hypothesis perform badly, while tests with the null of no cointegration retain much of their usefulness in this context.Structural change; Cointegration; Tests; Monte Carlo

The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models

Recent research has focused on the links between long memory and structural change, stressing the long memory properties that may arise in models with parameter changes. In this paper, we contribute to this research by comparing the forecasting abilities of long memory and Markov switching models. Two approaches are employed: a Monte Carlo study and an empirical comparison, using the quarterly Consumer Price inflation rate in Portugal in the period 1968-1998. Although long memory models may capture some in-sample features of the data, when shifts occur in the series considered, their forecast performance is relatively poor, when compared with simple linear and Markov switching models. Moreover, our findings, in a more general framework, are in accordance with the works of Clements and Hendry (1998) and Clements and Krolzig (1998), reinforcing the idea that simple linear time series models remain useful tools for prediction.Long Memory; Structural change; Forecasting

A New Scale for Measuring Engineering Identity in Undergraduates

Identity, or how people choose to define themselves, is gaining traction as an explanation for who pursues and persists in engineering. A number of quantitative studies have developed scales for predicting engineering identity in undergraduate students. However, the outcome measure of identity is sometimes based on a single item. In this paper, we present the results of a new two-item scale. The scale is adapted from an existing measure of identification with an organization that was developed by Bergami and Bagozzi [1] and refined by Bartel [2]. The measure focuses on the “cognitive (i.e., self-categorization) component of identification” (p. 556), and has been found to have high convergent validity with another, rigorous measure of identification with an organization or other entity created by Mael and Ashforth [3]. This measure utilizes one primarily visual and one verbal item to assess the extent to which an individual cognitively categorizes himself or herself as an engineer. The scale was administered to 1528 engineering undergraduate students during the 2016-2017 academic year. Internal consistency of the new engineering identity scale, as measured by Cronbach’s alpha, is 0.84. This new scale is an important step toward refining quantitative measures of, and the study of, engineering identity development in undergraduate students and other populations.Cockrell School of Engineerin

Refinement by interpretation in {\pi}-institutions

The paper discusses the role of interpretations, understood as multifunctions that preserve and reflect logical consequence, as refinement witnesses in the general setting of pi-institutions. This leads to a smooth generalization of the refinement-by-interpretation approach, recently introduced by the authors in more specific contexts. As a second, yet related contribution a basis is provided to build up a refinement calculus of structured specifications in and across arbitrary pi-institutions.Comment: In Proceedings Refine 2011, arXiv:1106.348

Analysis of Static Cellular Cooperation between Mutually Nearest Neighboring Nodes

Cooperation in cellular networks is a promising scheme to improve system performance. Existing works consider that a user dynamically chooses the stations that cooperate for his/her service, but such assumption often has practical limitations. Instead, cooperation groups can be predefined and static, with nodes linked by fixed infrastructure. To analyze such a potential network, we propose a grouping method based on node proximity. With the Mutually Nearest Neighbour Relation, we allow the formation of singles and pairs of nodes. Given an initial topology for the stations, two new point processes are defined, one for the singles and one for the pairs. We derive structural characteristics for these processes and analyse the resulting interference fields. When the node positions follow a Poisson Point Process (PPP) the processes of singles and pairs are not Poisson. However, the performance of the original model can be approximated by the superposition of two PPPs. This allows the derivation of exact expressions for the coverage probability. Numerical evaluation shows coverage gains from different signal cooperation that can reach up to 15% compared to the standard noncooperative coverage. The analysis is general and can be applied to any type of cooperation in pairs of transmitting nodes.Comment: 17 pages, double column, Appendices A-D, 9 Figures, 18 total subfigures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1604.0464